Sunday January 19 – Aqueduct Top Play
Scheduled local post time 2:21 pm ET
The 2/1 Morning line favorite Darnley Bay comes into this race off of just 3 days of rest, while making his second start since the claim for Oscar Barrera III.
Oscar Barrera III owns a Trainer Rating of 1 with Routers. In statistical terms, he’s 41-1-0-1 (2.4% wins) with a $0.81 ROI in route races throughout his training career. Worst of all, his horses are only 4.9% when it comes to finishing in the trifecta.
Barrera III is 0-for-13 with a Trainer Rating of just 15 with horses on similarly extreme short rest.
We just have to play against Darnley Bay and take our chances he won’t fire. Once upon a time, there was a trainer in New York named Oscar Barrera who was magical with new horses on short rest…but, only once!
As we look to beat Darnley Bay, The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates a pace that will favor horses on or near the early lead.
This will benefit of #1 Christinas Charm (5/2 Morning Line) and #7 Mary Ann’s Kitchen (8/1 Morning Line).
Christinas Charm is a Parx invader for the excellent trainer Ramon Preciado, a man who owns sky high ratings in many categories relevant to today’s race.
Perhaps most eye-catching in the image above is the excellent 99 Trainer Rating with Dirt Routers. Indeed, Preciado has been a long-term wizard with route runners. Over the last 10 years, Preciado trained horses are 372-for-1,538 (24.2% wins) wiyh a $2.03 ROI in route races.
The other horse we like is expected pace setter Mary Ann’s Kitchen. She is on an every-other pattern, running speed figures of 70 four starts back and 72 two starts back, sandwiched in between regression races last out and three starts back.
Indeed, Mary Ann’s Kitchen is the only horse in this race not named Darnley Bay who has a run a speed figure of 70 or better in any of her last four starts. And, she’s achieved it twice. Mary Ann’s Kitchen simply offers excellent value at her 8/1 morning line odds.
Betting Strategy: Exacta box of Christinas Charm and Mary Ann’s Kitchen. Also, play a trifecta and Superfecta using Get Gorgeous, Maxana, New York Conspiracy for the underneath slots.