Going against 2 M/L faves on today’s card at the Big A

Sunday December 29th – Aqueduct Top Plays

Get Started on today’s TimeformUS racecard from Aqueduct

Race 2
Scheduled local post time 12:49 pm ET

Screen Shot 2013-12-29 at 11.32.22 AM

This is a brutally weak race and it has been the target of jokes on Twitter every since it was drawn a few days ago. The ball got rolling with the jokes because 0-for-47 lifetime El Dreamer owns the field’s best last-out Beyer figure, and after the scratch of Moravitz, El Dreamer has the top last out TimeformUS speed figure as well.

However, we are talking about this race only because Do It For Dennis is the second fastest horse in the field with a 65 speed figure last time out, only slightly trailing his far more experienced competitor.   

The TimeformUS Pace Projector indicates that Do It For Dennis will be unchallenged on the early lead, which is an encouraging prospect for such a lightly raced horse cutting back off of stamina- building route races.

Very low-profile trainer Dennis Lalman has an 88 rating with sprinters at Aqueduct (from a limited sampling). When handicapping a field of mostly slow horses who have shown a disdain for winning, it’s always tempting to look for the horse who has room for improvement and should get the early jump on the field. Rarely do you have a chance to get such a horse at 15/1 odds.

Betting Strategy: Win bet on Do It For Dennis. Pick 3 wager starting in Race 2: 7 with 1-2-3-4-6 with 2-3-8.

Race 4
Scheduled local post time 1:47 pm ET

This is a fascinating betting race because 2/1 morning line favorite Believeinfaith does not look good at all on our past performances. In her first two starts, she failed to run a speed figure higher than 63. In her most recent start, she was pulled up and eased.

By comparison, Sals Wonderfulgirl (3/1 morning line) ran a speed figure of 93 in her lone career start. Believeinfaith simply looks like a very bad favorite, and Sals Wonderfulgirl is the selection.

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Sals Wonderfulgirl is a half sister to the $16,000,000 bust The Green Monkey, and she flaunted explosive early speed in her career debut, earning a 135 pace figure. Her trainer, Carlos Martin, has an excellent rating of 98 off of these kinds of layoffs, and he also owns a 100 rating with horses dropping from the Maiden Special Weight level.

Flaring (20/1 morning line) is a good underneath exotic inclusion. Her form and figures look quite similar to that of the morning line favorite. If Sals Wonderfulgirl scratches, she’d have an even stronger look because of her good early speed.

Betting Strategy: Win bet on Sals Wonderfulgirl. 

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