Scheduled post time 4:33pm ET
Normally, when we see a 5/2 morning line favorite who isn’t competitive on our speed figures, we get very excited about the prospect of tossing him and cashing in on an exciting betting opportunity.
However, said favorite Pleuven is one that we aren’t very excited about opposing. Yes, his most recent speed figure is only a 78, but that figure came in a minor stakes race in France, at Longchamp. The race was also in Mid-July, and two-year-old colts start to develop by leaps and bounds this time of year.
Pleuven has had 161 days to mature since his last race. He is bred to greatly appreciate the added distance. He is going to get the medication lasix for the first time, and he’s trained by the mighty Chad Brown.
Chad Brown has been an absolute alchemist with foreign imports. Throughout his training career, Brown is 10-for-25 (40% wins and a $3.20 ROI) with foreign shippers making their first start for him. In many instances, he’s succeeded at turning the base metal into gold, and they’ve made grand form reversals.
The last time Pleuven was defeated in a race was on June 2nd, when he finished 3rd to Testa Rossi, a filly who was later transferred to Chad Brown and captured the Miss Grillo at 5/1 odds before finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.
The bottom line is that Pleuven is an import with many powerful angles working in his favor. However, we must still oppose him simply because he’s a short price and must really make a leap to win this.
The best value of this race, based on Morning Line price, is certainly Request at 8/1 odds. This second-time starter by Dynaformer is also trained by Chad Brown. Get a look at Chad Brown’s Trainer Ratings in the relevant statistical categories with this horse!
Request ran an excellent 89 speed figure in his debut, and he did it with a wide trip. Javier Castellano retains the mount, and he wins at 31% on Chad Brown horses.
For exotic wagering purposes, the two other horses that interest us are Yes I’m Lucky and Bon Accord. Both of them ran extremely well in their most recent turf race and have obvious credentials.
A final note from this race is to pay attention to Mr. Speaker once he gets lasix. This Shug McGaughey-trained horse caught our eye with his maiden win at Belmont last time out. We think Mr. Speaker is in very tough today, but Shug’s Trainer Rating is a poor 42 with no lasix. The Phipps family is against two-year-olds racing on lasix. Look for this horse potentially to improve quite a bit in his next start, when he gets the medication. Orb made a grand form reversal with the addition of lasix as a three-year-old, and this one might also get a boost from the medication.
Betting Strategy: Win bet on Request. Use him with Yes I’m Lucky and Bon Accord in the exotics.