The TimeformUS pace projector indicates that Perfect Package (6/1 on the morning line) will once again be on an uncontested early lead. The crowd may ignore this fact because Perfect Package failed to cash in on a loose early lead last time out.
However, that race was run over an Inner Turf course at Belmont that seemed to swallow inside speed horses. The only other race run over the Inner Turf course on that card was a Maiden Claiming race won by Miz Orzwell, who rallied wide from dead last to win by 7.5 lengths and pay $13.20 to win.
Perfect Package deserves another shot today. Her TimeformUS speed figures of 82 and 86 in her previous two turf attempts are better than those of any of her rivals today. She should offer fantastic value if her morning line odds hold up.
The fastest first-call pace figure we’ve assigned for a dirt route race all year was for the Kentucky Derby, where Palace Malace ran an off-the-chart first-call figure. The second-fastest in a dirt race at a mile or more came for Sister State (7/2 morning line) in her allowance flop at Belmont Park on May 26th.
One of the horses Sister State outsprinted that day was Classic Point, who almost won the Grade 2 Honorable Miss in wire-to-wire fashion at six furlongs on Monday. Sister State raced on lasix for the first time and was thrown to the wolves by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin in her most recent start, where she finished up the track in the Mother Goose.
Despite mixing it up with vastly superior competition, and racing wide, Sister State earned a TimeformUS speed figure of 91, a figure better than any of her rivals today has ever run. The Pace Projector indicates Sister State should have the lead all to herself, and this daughter of A. P. Indy might be sitting on a breakthrough race.