Belmont Park, Race 8, 4:45 pm ET
The G2 Suburban Handicap, Three-and-Up, 1 and 1/8 Miles, Dirt

Gone are the glory days of the Suburban, when the weights were published in February and future-book betting on the contest was extremely popular. This year’s renewal of the Suburban brings together a field of just five, which may boil down further into a two-horse race between expected favorite Flat Out and the improving Last Gunfighter.

Last Gunfighter has won all six starts since moving to the barn of trainer Chad Brown, one of the few trainers who reach the top mark on the 100-point scale for their overall TimeformUS trainer rating.

Not only has Last Gunfighter improved his speed figure with each start in Brown’s care, but his most recent figure of 123 came in visually sensational fashion. He allowed a very good horse in Eighttofasttocatch an uncontested lead through very slow fractions in the Pimlico Special. Last Gunfighter blew his main rival away in the stretch despite the disadvantageous circumstances and won like a top-class horse.

Flat Out has been spectacular at Belmont Park and is certainly the danger, but his good Met Mile performance as the beaten favorite last time out came without much excuse. It was a regression for the seven-year-old and he will need to perform better to beat Last Gunfighter today.

Betting Strategy: Cold Exacta: Last Gunfighter over Flat Out